The Liberals have lost Wentworth and Turnbulls are to blame.
Mainly Malcolm but also his proxy in this war, his son Alex.
Malcolm because he should have eaten the brown sandwich and shown some loyalty to the party that made him PM. No one else was going to give him a shot. Turns out, the Libs shouldn’t have either.
Yes, the Liberals sacked him but that is politics. He knew that. After all, he got his shot in parliament when he dislodged former Wentworth MP Peter King.
What Turnbull has given us is the biggest dummy spit ever by a former PM. Ever. That he has worked his magic on some in the media to come out of this with ‘clean hands’ shows how much Kool-Aid some of the gallery has drunk.
Alex is guilty because he smashed the Libs through a willing media at every opportunity. He did his father’s bidding. That’s to be expected, but he should have stayed silent. What they have both done is trash the limited legacy his father had. Latham would be more welcome in the Labor Party room than Turnbull in the Liberal’s.
And before the Left suggests Turnbull is merely exercising his ‘free speech’, no one is suggesting he be ‘silenced’ but he should have some grace.
The Wentworth result
Although the size of the loss is unknown and there is evidence that postal votes will tighten the margin. Sharma has lost Wentworth and the Morrison Government is now a minority government but the size of the loss is still to be determined. It may not be the mega catastrophe early results suggest.
If by some miracle the Libs do pull a win out of the hat (and it’s a million-to-one longshot), a lot of commentators who have smashed the Libs on Twitter in the past 18 hours will be tweeting a lot of mealy-mouthed apologies.
As predicted, everyone is claiming their cause as the reason for the loss.
There are three main culprits at this stage:
- Climate change.
- The Right of the Liberal Party and ‘shock jocks’.
- Ditching Turnbull.
Congratulations to Labor’s candidate @Timpmurray and his hardworking team on a fabulous campaign in Wentworth. They’ve done a fantastic job fighting for a better future for Wentworth – for action on climate change, and against the Liberals’ attacks on the ABC. #wentworthVotes
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) October 20, 2018
As Sam Maiden suggested, making Labor’s vote so low was actually a tactic (and an art form), so Shorten is purposely praising a limp campaign. It was smart from Labor.
Further empirical evidence #Wentworthvotes that the right wing commentariat doesn’t actually shift votes. It merely rails and raves, scaring craven politicians into adopting minority and extreme positions. All in the name of what …anti-elitism? Risible
— Mark Kenny (@markgkenny) October 20, 2018
This is worse than self serving, it’s purposely wrong. Wentworth is the home of the ABC, not shock jocks. Tradies and cabbies in the Eastern Suburb of Sydney might listen to Hadley and Jones, but the bulk of listeners in Wentworth are glued to the ABC. If this vote had occurred in a Western Sydney seat, the backlash would have been affected by shock jocks and the policies and ideas they campaign on.
Essentially, the argument about shock jocks is taking their influence in middle Australia and applying it to a niche seat un upper Australia.
Here’s the counterfactual: imagine a campaign in Western Sydney run on ABC issues like greater ‘investment’ in renewable energy and increased refugee intake, gay marriage in all religious institutions and encouraging public transport through higher fuel excise.
David Crowe nails it:
"The Liberals decided eight weeks ago that Malcolm Turnbull was an electoral liability and had to go. The same Liberals now argue he was an electoral asset and needed to help them win his old seat."https://t.co/bdsfTZgoN1 #auspol #WentworthVotes
— Bevan Shields (@BevanShields) October 20, 2018
If the Turnbulls had been a positive influence in Wentworth the Liberal vote would have been higher. Tighter, yes. But it would have been an easier Sharma win.
It would also have cemented a legacy for Turnbull. He has smashed his own brand for endorphins.
The Turnbull factor is unique to Wentworth. The party – representing seats across the nation – ditched Turnbull. To have kept him on because his own seat wanted him is the height of ridiculous reasoning.
There’s no need to go over the Newspolls or the catastrophe of he 2016 election. If others wish to suggest Turnbull was popular, they are avoiding evidence.
So what does it mean?
Nothing. At least not now.
Let’s wait and see. This is essentially squibbing it but there’s a good reason for some judicious delay. Elections are complicated and so are electorates. Even Wentworth.
Gay rights play big in Wentworth. This is broadly centre/centre-left position.
Middle East/Jewish politics plays big in Wentworth. This is broadly centre/centre-right position.
Climate change plays big in Wentworth. This is broadly centre/centre-left position.
Ditching Malcolm Turnbull plays big in Wentworth. This is broadly centre/centre-left position.
There are too many variables. Wait a month for deep analysis. Everything today – other than the blaringly obvious – is not worth the bandwidth.
Have we seen the last of the Turnbulls?
No. No we haven’t. Alex Turnbull for one if having too much fun.
Here are two of his tweets from the last 24 hours. They show a vindictiveness that will not be satiated by the election.
— Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull) October 20, 2018
Incredible result and proud of the people of Wentworth. A hearty congratulations to @drkerrynphelps who fought a great campaign. A great day for Australian democracy.
— Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull) October 20, 2018
Keep these in mind next time he is interviewed, especially by the ABC.
When the microphone is turned to Alex Turnbull, they are pushing an agenda.The same goes for when the ABC interviews John Hewson for his independent commentary.
What’s worse? Both have tasted some success. They aren’t going anywhere. Pity.