The recovery might be a V, not a swoosh

At The Breakdown, we believe the recovery will be a V, not a Nike swoosh. The faster the fall, the faster the rise.

It seems our optimism, built on the fact that the fundamentals that created the boom before COVID-19 were good, might be catching. This is from the left-wing Politico:

In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.

Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.

“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.

He’s not the only one:

Jamie Dimon sees “pretty good odds” of a fast economic rebound starting in the third quarter thanks to the US government’s stimulus programs and the strength of the consumer going into the pandemic.

“You could see a fairly rapid recovery,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said Tuesday (US time) at a virtual conference hosted by Deutsche Bank AG. “The government has been pretty responsive, large companies have the wherewithal, hopefully we’re keeping the small ones alive.”

Dimon, who runs the largest US bank, pointed to economists’ forecasts that show unemployment spiking to around 18 per cent this quarter, then falling to 14 per cent in the third quarter and declining to about 10 per cent or 11 per cent by the end of the year.

That means people getting back to work and a hive of activity.

As we said, it’s about age and underlying conditions

Australia’s youngest death from COVID-19 has been recorded in Queensland:

Chief health officer Jeannette Young said the man’s partner returned home from work at 4:30pm yesterday and had found him unresponsive.

He died a short time later and a positive COVID-19 test was returned about 11:00pm.

Dr Young said the man was believed to have been sick with symptoms for several weeks and had a “complicated” medical history.

She said it was not known how he contracted the virus but he had become the “youngest” victim in Australia.

“You then get into semantics about what was the trigger and what was the cause. Any person who dies, who is infected with COVID-19, we declare it as a COVID-19 related death,” Dr Young said.

Say that last bit again, please:

“You then get into semantics about what was the trigger and what was the cause. Any person who dies, who is infected with COVID-19, we declare it as a COVID-19 related death,” Dr Young said.

Some might call it semantics; others might call it accuracy. There’s a big difference when the gap between living and dying is an excuse to keep Australians under lockdown.

It does appear the man is obese. Obesity is a comorbidity for COVID-19.

Nathan Turner smiles with a hat on.

Nathan Turner – Australia’s youngest COVID-19 death. Photo: Facebook.

And while the timing is bad – it’s important to note that the CDC has stated that the death rate from COVID-19 is 0.26.

As David Horowitz explains:

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26%.

As for the WHO:

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

And here’s where the scope of our folly is exposed:

The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

And children are seven times more likely to die from the normal flu than from Kung Flu.

Twitter is playing a very dangerous game

John Fogerty (b 1945)

The voice and drive behind Credence Clearwater Revival. And for the trivia buffs, CCR did not have a single Billboard chart topper. The best they ever did was peak at 2. Shocking.

FEATURE IMAGE: Photo by Lucian Alexe on Unsplash.